Every year, like clockwork, the ads start rolling out. Flashing banners scream about early Black Friday deals, inboxes fill with coupon codes, and social feeds turn into digital shopping malls. But this year, something feels different. With the federal government shutdown dragging on and economists warning of slower growth, the question hangs heavy in the air: can Black Friday still save the holiday season—or even the economy?

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A Myth Wrapped in Marketing

Most of us grew up hearing some version of the Black Friday origin story: that it started as a way to pull businesses “out of the red” and “into the black” during tough economic times. The idea goes that stores were struggling and needed a way to boost profits—and shoppers, ever eager for a good deal, obliged.

🕰️ Did You Know? The True Origin of Black Friday
The name Black Friday didn’t start with holiday cheer. In the early 1960s, Philadelphia police coined the term to describe the chaotic traffic and crowds that flooded the city the day after Thanksgiving. It wasn’t until the 1980s that retailers reframed it as a positive—marking the point in the year when sales finally pushed their ledgers from “red” to “black.”
It’s a reminder that our traditions often evolve from complicated origins—and that we can keep rewriting them to fit the times.

The story isn’t entirely accurate—the term actually came from Philadelphia police in the 1960s who dreaded the post-Thanksgiving shopping chaos—but the myth stuck for a reason. It’s comforting to think that shopping could be a patriotic act, that spending might keep the economy humming when times are uncertain.

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Déjà Vu Economics

Fast-forward to now. The economy feels wobbly again. With the federal government partially shut down, tens of thousands of workers are furloughed or working without pay. Beyond that, federal contracts that normally keep private businesses afloat have been paused, and as invoices go unpaid, contractors are beginning to lay off workers.

Meanwhile, uncertainty ripples through households across the country. Consumer confidence has dropped, and programs like SNAP benefits—which many families rely on to put food on the table—hang in the balance. For some, the concern this holiday season isn’t about what gifts will be under the tree, but whether there will even be food on the table.

I rarely talk politics here unless it’s directly connected to our library world, but something feels off this year. It’s hard to celebrate the season of giving when so many are worried about simply getting by.

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What That Means for the Holidays

So what does all this mean for this year’s Black Friday? Probably fewer flat-screen TVs in carts and more “let’s just get what we need” lists. Big-ticket purchases may take a back seat to small, meaningful gifts or shared experiences. Value is the keyword of 2025—consumers are gravitating toward discounts, homemade gifts, and brands that understand that not everyone feels festive when their budget is stretched thin.

Retailers are feeling the pinch, too. Some are rolling out early “pre-Black Friday” sales to keep momentum going, while others are focusing on experiences—cozy events, local collaborations, and affordable indulgences that remind us joy doesn’t have to cost a fortune.

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Tariffs: The Hidden Price Tag

There’s another hidden tax this season: tariffs. When you buy that new gadget or sweater that came from overseas—or uses imported parts—someone somewhere paid extra, and that cost often ends up in your cart.

According to Yale’s Budget Lab, U.S. tariff policies enacted in 2025 are expected to increase consumer prices in the short run. And a Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis study found that import prices for many goods are about 5 % higherthan they would have been without those tariffs.

What that means: higher baseline costs, fewer truly “deep” discounts, and more pressure on household budgets already stretched by inflation and uncertainty.

Economists are cautious, but the signs are familiar: the CBO estimates that the current shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion in lost output, trimming as much as 1–2 percentage points from Q4 growth. Inflation and credit-card debt remain elevated, and many Americans say they feel less secure in their jobs.

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Whether this becomes an official recession or just a rough patch, the sentiment is the same—people are weary.

And maybe that’s why this year, the myth of Black Friday as an economic booster feels worth revisiting. Because if the original story was about saving struggling businesses through community action, maybe the modern version can be, too—but not through overspending or panic-buying.

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Rethinking What “Boosting the Economy” Means

Perhaps this year, boosting the economy looks more like:

• Shopping small, supporting local makers and businesses who keep money in the community.
• Buying with intention, choosing gifts that last or have meaning instead of impulse buys that end up in donation bins by February.
• Investing in experiences, like baking with family, volunteering, or visiting holiday markets—things that build memories, not clutter.
• Checking in, not just on prices, but on people. A kind word, a shared meal, or even patience in a checkout line can go further than we think.

It’s less about the adrenaline rush of doorbusters and more about thoughtful participation in a shared season.

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The Real Black Friday Lesson

Maybe the heart of that old myth wasn’t wrong after all—it just needed updating. Black Friday doesn’t have to be a day of chaos or consumer guilt. It can be a reminder that our collective actions—how we spend, give, and connect—shape more than the economy. They shape our sense of stability and hope.

So whether you’re skipping the crowds entirely or clicking “add to cart” for something special, remember: the real power of Black Friday isn’t in saving a few dollars—it’s in deciding what kind of future we want to buy into.

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This year, let’s measure prosperity not by how much we purchase, but by how much compassion we circulate.